Meridian v1.6 · snapshot prices · verified slate
How the desk prices.
A short method, not a white paper. If a number is on the board, it came from one of these steps.
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Deterministic on purpose
The board follows today’s slate in Eastern Time. Snapshot prices stay labeled until a licensed live feed is connected — refresh does not invent a tick. Same ratings, same weather, same formula. Meridian is not a sportsbook.
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The hero
The giant number on the board is the nearest major-league game that is live or about to kick, then the side with the greatest win probability. Not the longest shot. Not a national-TV graphic. If two games share a window, the bigger favorite takes the hero. On the NFL board that is the next kick — preseason included — then the biggest favorite in that window. Filter any of the 32 clubs from the team row.
- 03
The win probability
Each side starts from a sport-specific rating (an Elo cousin). We add a logit for home field, rest, travel, form, injuries, weather, stadium, officials, and matchup notes. A logistic maps the sum to a probability. Soccer keeps a draw mass. The ring you see is that number — not the book’s implied, not a blended consensus.
- 04
Books, juice, and the closer
Twelve books are quoted from the fair probability plus each shop’s hold and shade. Pinnacle and Circa sit near the true line. Retail books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN BET, Fanatics, theScore) juice the public side and lag steam. Hybrid books (bet365, BetRivers, Hard Rock) live in between. The green number is the best available American price. Hold is the tax you pay if you bet both sides.
- 05
Kelly
f* = (bp − q) / b, where b is decimal odds minus one, p is the model, q is 1 − p. The desk defaults to half-Kelly and caps a single stake at 5% of bankroll. Full Kelly maximizes log-wealth and will also bankrupt a streaky week. If f* is negative the play is a pass — even when the write-up is pretty.
- 06
Parlays
Joint probability is the product of the legs, then a haircut: 18% for same-game, 6% for three-plus same-sport, 2% otherwise. We do not price a same-game parlay as independent coin flips. If the slip still has edge after the haircut, Kelly sizes it. If not, pass.
- 07
Stadium, weather, bodies
Open roofs take wind, humidity, and rain. Domes and closed retractables zero the weather term. Park factors move baseball totals (Coors, Fenway, the porch in Philadelphia). Injuries hit the logit of the listed side. Travel miles tax the visitor. Rest is a signed differential. None of this is a vibe — each factor prints its delta on the card.
- 08
Best price
Best price compares identical selections: same market, period, side, and line. Team A -3.5 -105 can be compared with Team A -3.5 -110. Team A -3 is a different proposition. Stale or suspended quotes cannot win. Affiliate flags cannot win. Ties are co-best. Price Quality is how favorable the quote is versus the tracked market — not a prediction the bet wins.
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Affiliate firewall
priceRank, editorialRank, and commercialRelationship are separate. No code path lets compensation change a best-price badge. This channel currently has outbound sportsbook links off pending legal and store-policy review.
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Best bet by week
On the NFL board, each week on this freeze — Preseason Week 2, Preseason Week 3, Week 1 — gets one play: the highest Kelly edge after juice, not the biggest favorite. Ask the desk is the same model in a sentence. Type “what’s the best bet for NFL week 1” and you get the Week 1 card, the book, and the why. Grok only rewrites the prose. The numbers never leave the slate.
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Live odds and scores
Scores update throughout the day from the public scoreboard — live, final, and the inning or clock. Odds stay a labeled snapshot until a licensed odds feed is connected. A delayed score never invents a price. Keys stay on the server.
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AI Council
Every enabled model sees the same frozen evidence packet and snapshot hash. Structured outputs are validated. Invented markets or source IDs are rejected. Council support is a count of agreeing lanes — never a win probability. Missing credentials disable a lane; Demo Mode uses labeled demo adapter responses. Microsoft’s lane is Microsoft AI. See /legal#ai-methodology.
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What this is not
Meridian is not a sportsbook. It does not take wagers, move money, or promise a profit. The day follows the Eastern Time slate; prices stay a labeled snapshot until a licensed feed is connected. Past results do not guarantee anything. If betting is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.